The types of threats and challenges existing currently and those that are likely to arise in the future are, by themselves, indicative of a threat-cum-capability-based force structure in which the potential adversary’s capabilities and threats can both be countered by acquiring a full spectrum capability but without overstretching the country’s resources

Many views hav e been expressed on the subject of future wars. Most observations and assessments depend upon the background, expertise and bias of the individuals concerned. Martin Crevald, the Israeli military scientist, states, “War will be completely permeated by technology and governed by it.” Andrew Marshall, former Director of the Office of Net Assessments in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, states, “A revolution in military affairs (RMA) is a major change in the nature of warfare brought about by the innovative application of new technologies which combined with dramatic changes in military doctrine, operational and organisational concepts, fundamentally alters the character and conduct of military operations.” Such an RMA, he says, is occurring.

Colin S. Gray in his book Strategy for Chaos describes RMA differently. He says, “The character of war is always changing, but from time to time, the pace of change accelerates or appears to do so with the result that there is a change of state in warfare. War must still be war but it is waged in a noticeably different manner.” This is what the current information technology driven RMA has accomplished.

While the details of each evaluation and appraisal differ in their content and quality, some conclusions emerge quite clearly and these are:

• Future warfare will be highly uncertain.
• Technology will play a predominant role in designing the conduct of war.
• Weaker states will use “asymmetric warfare” to fight opponents that are more powerful while the more powerful states will use positive asymmetry through technological capabilities to deliver significant lethal and non-lethal effects with precision, speed and crushing power.
• Globalisation and interconnectedness will make wars transparent thus challenging the political utility of using armed forces.
• Military power is likely to be used selectively, in an integrated and synergetic manner and with increasing discrimination in choosing means as well as ends.
• There will invariably be an international pressure on warring parties.
• Two or three generations of warfare will coexist.
• State-to-state conflict, when both parties act on national initiative, will become a rarity.
• Care will have to be taken to work within the limits of international law, including its precepts on the minimum use of force and proportionality of response.

Existing Threats and Challenges

India faces three types of military threats and challenges currently. The traditional variety of threat is from Pakistan and China respectively due to the existing territorial disputes. Considering their growing collusion currently and in the past, a simultaneous two-front threat also cannot be ruled out. This is likely to be in the form of limited wars of mid/high intensity. Internal threat and the contemporary challenges are likely to take the form of low-intensity conflict (LIC) like terrorism and insurgencies emanating from traditional adversaries, international terrorist networks, non-state actors, and dissident groups of home-grown variety. The conventional conflicts are likely to be of short duration, which may vary from a few days to a few weeks, due to the inevitable international pressures.

LIC falls under the category of ‘politicomilitary confrontation’ between contending states or groups and are at a much lower scale than conventional wars but are above the routine and peaceful competition among states. LIC ranges from high-grade internal security situations to the extensive employment of Army in counter-insurgency operations. LIC is waged by a combination of means, employing political, economic, informational and military instruments. It includes terrorism but excludes purely criminal acts. Such conflicts as opposed to conventional wars may prolong indefinitely because conflict resolution has to be achieved within many conflicting influences.

Future Challenges

In addition to the existing threats and challenges, the new threat dimensions and challenges that need to be examined, in the future, say up to the next two decades or so, are:

• Security of our national values and purpose, as laid down in the Constitution of India.
• Security of our island territories separated by large distances from the mainland.
• Security of our resources rich area.
• Security of a large and unprotected coastline and the national assets and infrastructure along the coastline.
• Security of sea-routes of communications which provide passage to our trade.
• Internal dissent and claims to autonomy and ethnic recognition by subnational entities, who may be supported from outside.
• Demographic shifts in the South Asian region.
• Non-military threats and their impact on the military (water, energy, etc).
• Inimical actions by powerful multinationals which may affect own vital national interests and which may be supported by other states.
• The beliefs of one or more powerful states, which view their security as more vital than that of the world.
• Overspill of ethnic conflicts in the South Asian region into India.
• Out of area contingencies to support friendly states in the region or evacuation of own diasporas from conflict zones.
• Global terrorism perpetrated by nonstate actors in our region, which may be aided or supported by other states.
• Cyber and space.
• Military aid in internal security against:
• Terrorist Activity
• Narcotics Trade
• Antagonistic Paramilitary groups
• Large-scale civil disobedience caused by a variety of reasons
• Disturbances caused by ideological, ethnic and religious hatred, anarchy, food shortages and absence of governance.

Future Force Structure

The types of threats and challenges existing currently and those that are likely to arise in the future are, by themselves, indicative of a threat-cum-capability-based force structure in which the potential adversary’s capabilities and threats can both be countered by acquiring a full spectrum capability but without overstretching the country’s resources. This can be achieved by utilising national resources i.e. through synergising the resources at national level and not confining the capabilities to the armed forces alone because wars are national undertakings and not the domain of the military alone. Thus we need a joint war fighting doctrine which combines the use of armed forces and other national resources together with modern technology and operational art, evolved contextually into an Indian way of warfighting.