With the Chinese disengagement from Chumar, some sense seems to have returned in taking the India-China relationship to the next level. The decision was apparently taken by China after the flag meeting requested by China for the first time and discussion between Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj with her Chinese counterpart in the US. But more perhaps what S. Gurumurthy wrote on September 26, 2014 in his article ‘Narendra Modi’s Strategy: To Right The Wrong Image’, wherein he wrote, “Modi looked into Xi’s eyes and raised the border incursions of Chinese Army in Ladakh. Forbes magazine reported, - Modi asked Xi to get his troops away - Xi acquiesced. In contrast, for the last 10 years, India had only bent and crawled before China. On reaching China, Xi took action against those who attempted to sabotage the Sino-Indian relations and also to promote his loyalists to top positions in the Army. Like with Sharif, with Xi also Modi had had his way.” The observation by Forbes appears strange with tight Communist Party of China (CPC) control over everything Chinese especially the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) directly under whom the border divisions function, unless someone / some people within the CPC wanted to derail the India-China relationship in contrast to what President Xi wanted. Unfortunately, the old guard of CPC buoyed by the PLA continues to base its stratagem on Mao Zhedong’s one-time statement (endorsed by Deng Xiaoping) that “Tibet is the palm of China and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and NEFA are its fingers”, little realising strong-arm tactics won’t work anymore and more importantly going back in history, India too can lay claims to entire of region up to Hindukush Mountains, parts Tibet, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, parts of Burma (now Myanmar), Malaysia and Indonesia – which would be a most foolish proposition. It is also strange that Wei Wei the Chinese Ambassador at New Delhi has been removed prematurely though much before President Xi’s visit to India he had written in the Economic Times the vast potential that India-China relationship has.

Time to Review Friendships and Alignments

Nevertheless, as long as China does not indulge in more incursions especially with signing of the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA), ample scope exists for the bilateral relationship to be taken to new heights concurrent to peaceful resolution of the border. India’s External Affairs Minister had stated, “When they [China] raised with us the issue of Tibet and Taiwan, we shared their sensibilities. So, we want they should understand and appreciate our sensibilities regarding Arunachal Pradesh.” Additionally, our National Security Advisor has conveyed to Beijing Chinese activities in Pakistan occupied Kashmir that will affect the resolution of the Kashmir issue. China and more importantly President Xi has to think about this. China needs to recognise the Great Game unfolding in South Asia, the objective of which is geopolitical influencing between the West and China-Russia much the same way it has been played and is still being played in Middle East and elsewhere. Premature pullout of US-NATO forces from Afghanistan, refocusing of Al Qaeda to South Asia and mass induction of weapons for Xinjiang rebels (irrespective whether the conduit is via Indonesia or elsewhere) are all part of this strategy. More important for China is to understand that in checkmating China on land in South Asia from reaching out to the Indian Ocean region (IOR), the West will use Pakistan and her proxies, as is currently happening in Middle East. Notwithstanding China-Pakistan relations, Pakistan retains the strategic potential to assist the West in containment of Russia and China through her proxies, in tandem with her global terrorist links. The dark shadow of ISIS and Al Qaeda supported by Pakistan Taliban, its factions and other terrorist organisations, all coordinated and supported by Pakistan with financial support from Saudi Arabia and allies is looming large over Xinjiang and South Asia. It is for China to review its friendships and alignments. Still more importantly, China needs to acknowledge that India has emerged as ‘the’ Swing State in this new Great Game and very much part of China’s Silk Route diplomacy, that too free of choke points, no matter how distorted Admiral Zheng’s 15th century narrative has become over the decades. It is for China to analyse whether it wants to continue showing muscle to push India firmly into the US strategy to ‘Rebalance Asia’ or have better relations with India so that the latter (together with China) can play a constructive role for betterment of the region and the world.

Settlement of Border Issues

Logically, if China wants India to sign on the dotted line of ‘One China’ policy, it should do likewise accepting ‘One India’ including ‘recognising the accession of the State of J&K to India on October 26, 1947’. Sure that would make Chinese occupation of the Shaksgam Valley and Aksai Chin illegal but that can be negotiated between the special representatives of both countries charged with negotiating the border. No one better than President Xi would understand the strategic payoffs for claiming more and more territory vis-à-vis early settlement of the border issue in mutually acceptable terms. This would not only give the India-China partnership a quantum jump, the strategic payoff would lead to establishment of multiple north-south economic, energy and transportation corridors (road and rail) linking Russia-China and India that could come through the avenues of Chumbi Valley-Nathu La (already agreed to as alternate route for Kailash Mansarover yatra), through Nepal and other mutually agreed avenues, linking right down to Indian ports.

China’s Intrusions

On taking over the mantle of Prime Minister, Narendra Modi had referred to memoirs of the 7th century Chinese Scholar Hiuen Tsang in his conversation with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to underline the importance of ties between the two countries. Subsequently, in his meeting with Prime Minister Modi in Brazil, President Xi Jinping had said that as the two biggest developing countries and emerging markets, both China and India are in a great historical process of realising national rejuvenation; thus, what the two count ries value most is peace and development, and the ideals and goals of the two countries are linked closely. Later Xi went on record to say, “When India and China speak in one voice, the world will pay attention --The combination of the world’s factory and the world’s back office will produce the most competitive production base.” But then came a sudden damper to Xi Jinping’s visit – the incursions in Depsang and Chumar. This was apparently part of the archaic CPC’s standing operating procedure during / close to high-level visits is well known: Chinese troops intruded six km into India in February 1997 following President Jiang Zemin’s visit to India in preceding December; Chinese intrusion in Arunachal in June 2003 during Vajpayee’s visit to PRC; Chinese intrusion in Arunachal in May 2005 in aftermath of Prime Minister Wen Jibao’s visit to India; just prior to President Hu Jintao’s visit in November 2006, Sun Yuxi announced entire Arunachal is part of Chinese fiefdom; and prolonged Chinese intrusion in Depsang Plains prior to and during Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s visit to India in May 2013.

China’s Investments

But then Chinese companies have already invested $396 million in India, while Chinese companies had executed infrastructure contracts in India worth $24.7 billion till 2011, cumulative contractual value of these projects being $53.46 billion as per the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) estimates. Chinese companies have also been investing in the power sector. Indian markets are flooded with Chinese goods, imports of Chinese toys, gaming and sports alone amounting to $36.7 million during 2013-14. It is no secret that China has been eyeing India markets in major way. Just before President Xi Jinping’s visit, media talked of a $100 billion investment package being brought by him, overshadowing Japan’s $35 billion investment. However, in this particular instance, two-timing the Depsang-Chumar intrusions with Xi’s visit was unwise not only because of the BDCA but also because of China contradicting her own reiteration that border population should not be disturbed. Prime Minister Modi was explicit in saying that a “climate of mutual trust and confidence; respect for each other’s sensitivities and concerns; and, peace and stability in our [India and China] relations and along our borders are essential for us to realise the enormous potential in our relations”. Xi’s planned $100 billion investment in India over five years already appeared doomed from the beginning with Beijing’s refusal to accept the ‘one-India’ policy while wanting continued Indian commitment to ‘one-China’, besides other forms of obduracy like stapled visas for residents of Arunachal Pradesh. So, in the bargain, what Xi achieved was just a $20 billion investment in India over five years, far below contemporary Japan. Sure Xi’s visit upgraded India-China relations that resulted in the following specifics: Chinese commitment to invest $20 billion in infrastructure over next five years; invitation to China to invest in manufacturing sector; two Chinese industrial parks will be built in India; new road to Kailash Mansarovar via Nathu La; Mumbai and Shanghai to be twin cities, as also Ahmedabad and Guangzhou; commitment by China to address bilateral trade deficit; facilitation of visit of 10,000 pupils from both countries; Chinese agreement to hold friendly discussions to resolve border issues, and invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit China next year. Modi had raised the issue of the Chinese incursions in Ladakh and said, “There should be peace in Indo-China relations at the borders. If this happens the two nations can realise true potential”. Xi did say that “China and India are two key nations in the multi-polar world. The two nations share similar developing goals”.

It will be prudent for China to shelve the policy of muscle flexing and go for politically resolving the border issue in peaceful manner ‘without disturbing status quo of the LAC’ until a mutual solution is found. What China fails to realise is that instead of muscle flexing, resolution of border will not only facilitate Chinese investment in India much beyond the $100 billion that Xi had planned but more importantly it would give China immense strategic advantage through transportation, economic and energy corridors linking Indian ports along the Indian Ocean. Year 2014 is being observed by both countries as the ‘Year of Friendly Exchanges’ to step up engagement on various fronts. India launched its biggest year-long cultural festival in China called ‘Glimpses of India’ this year. The prospects in industrialisation in both countries are gigantic, as is the scope of Chinese investments in infrastructure in India. Time has arrived to resolve outstanding issues and kick-start a new phase of strategic cooperation, which would mutually benefit both countries immensely, ushering a new chapter in Asian history.