The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly eulogized US President Donald Trump at the 2025 Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh on October 13, 2025, nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize; in a manner akin to bootlicking. Earlier Pak Army Chief Asim Munir nominated Trump for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize although this was after the deadline given by the Nobel Committee. Shehbaz is seeking Trump's help to get loans from the IMF and the World Bank. Pakistan has a three-year, $7 billion aid package from the IMF and IMF approved an additional $1 billion in May 2025. Also in May 2025, YouTube reported that the World Bank is planning to invest about $40 billion in Pakistan. America is the most indebted nation ($32.9 trillion debt - $76,000 average per citizen), India ranks 7th ($3 trillion debt - $504 average per citizen) while Pakistan is 33rd ($260.8 billion debt - $543 average per citizen), according to the latest World Population Review. The IMF has warned that the fund's forecasts suggest America's debt-to-GDP ratio will be at a record high by the end of the decade.

Pakistan's balancing act between the US and China is getting trickier. Trump, who in his first term dubbed Pakistan a hub of global terror, has already met Asim Munir thrice at the White House, and Shehbaz Sharif twice. Pakistan made a crypto-currency deal that benefits Trump's family, Balochistan's minerals have been offered to Trump, as well as the Pasni Port while Gwadar Port is with China. Simultaneously, the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilogue continues and the CPEC is planned to be extended to Afghanistan. But Pakistan being elected to the 'UN Human Rights Council', despite documented human rights abuses and global terrorist links, exposes the dysfunction of the international community in the shadow of the Trump Administration.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly eulogized US President Donald Trump nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize

The unrest in Pakistan so far, in addition to its economic plight, was the unrest in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK), the Baloch independence movement and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) coming home in strength to roost in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and North Waziristan. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is continuously attacking Pakistani security forces in response to the genocide against Baloch population. The Pakistan army has admitted that 917 terrorists, 303 soldiers, 73 policemen and 132 civilians had been killed in KPK by September 15, 2025.

Then was Pakistan's self-inflicted wound in the shape of Operation 'Sindoor', following its Pahalgam terrorist attack, causing major damages to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) - aircraft, airfields, infrastructure and air defences. But now the Taliban-Pakistan conflict has got Pakistan in a bind from all directions. On October 17, 2025, Pakistan broke the 48-hour truce after a week of bloody border clashes that killed dozens of troops and civilians on both sides, and conducted airstrikes in Kabul, as well as in Spin Boldak and Paktika provinces. Heavy casualties were claimed on both sides. The Taliban claimed capturing two Pakistani border posts and showed driving captured Pakistani tanks.

Pakistan's balancing act between the US and China is getting trickier.

Afghanistan and Pakistan signed a temporary ceasefire deal on October 19, 2025 at Doha. Qatar is known to fund terrorism globally but is a US ally with US CENTCOM headquarters in situ. When the US handed back Afghanistan to the Taliban on a platter in August 2021, it followed US-Pakistan negotiations in Doha. Now the Taliban-Pakistan ceasefire deal was also signed in Doha. Taliban called Durand Line imaginary and said the border was not discussed as part of truce with Pakistan and has objected to the Durand Line being mentioned as the "Border" in the ceasefire agreement. Durand Line is a western mischief which unjustly divided the Pashtuns on both sides of this line. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs removed the phrase "on the border between the two brotherly countries", replacing it with "between the two brotherly countries" in the revised statement.

The 2,670-km Durand Line was inked by the British civil servant Henry Mortimer Durand and the then Afghan Emir, Abdur Rahman Khan, to fix the respective "spheres of influence" and improve diplomatic ties between British India and the Afghan Kingdom. The line was modified by the Anglo-Afghan Treaty of 1919. However, the treaty was on for 100 years, and since it was not renewed in 1999, it is obviously dead and void since then.

In the aftermath of India having destroyed nine terrorist camps of Pakistan in Operation 'Sindoor', following changes are happening in Pakistan:

1. an alliance has been formed between the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K) being handled by the Inter-Services Intelligence;
2. the LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) are relocating their terror hideouts from PoK to Pakistan's KPK province on the Afghan border; they appear to have lost faith in the Pakistan Army's ability to protect them in POK. However, relocating to KPK implies confrontation with the TTP and the Taliban, unless they decide to join up with them.

The Pakistan army has admitted that 917 terrorists, 303 soldiers, 73 policemen and 132 civilians had been killed in KPK by September 15, 2025.

Afghanistan doesn't have conventional forces like Pakistan but the Taliban are adept at suicide missions and guerilla tactics. Pakistan can use its air force for airstrikes but the Taliban may acquire drones in the short term. Moreover, the Taliban recently announced that its military engineering division has successfully tested a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) capable of hitting targets up to 400-500 km. Pakistan is most upset with the recent week-long visit of Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Miyyatqi to India and upgrading of India-Afghanistan diplomatic relations. The problem areas remain the India-Pakistan relations including border crossings and the volatile Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Muttaqi has asked India to influence the US to lift the sanctions on the Chabahar Port. But this is unlikely to happen given Donald Trump's stance towards Iran and India. Even if the Indo-US trade deal is resolved, Trump is unlikely to relent on Chabahar and Iran.

Asim Munir's speech at the convention for overseas Pakistanis in Islamabad on April 17, 2025, where he explicitly articulated the differences between Pakistanis and Hindus, exemplifies the extent of radicalisation the Pakistani army has plunged into. Of late, Munir has been wagging his nuclear tail, knowing fully that there will be no Pakistan if a nuclear conflict takes place. Intelligence reports indicate 120 heavily armed terrorists are waiting to cross the LoC into J&K, even though India has "paused" Operation 'Sindoor', not terminated it.

Pakistan broke the 48-hour truce after a week of bloody border clashes with Taliban, and conducted airstrikes in Kabul and other provinces.

It is being said that India's rapprochement with the Taliban is a calculated diplomatic gamble to engage the controversial Taliban regime to secure regional influence, safeguard security interests, and outflank Pakistan. But the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflagration could escalate into a major conflict with Taliban not recognising Durand Line as the border; Pakistan increasingly coming under the Taliban-TTP influence and the Sharia Law being imposed. Both the Taliban and the TTP aim at a Global Islamic Emirate, which is not good for India. Moreover, Baloch population is small and expanding TTP-Taliban would run counter to Baloch independence. Much is also being said about Pakistan disintegrating but would China and the US allow this to happen? Indian policy makers need to examine all these issues seriously. Pakistan no doubt is in hot soup but we must be careful that the heat doesn't singe India.