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Pakistan – Talibanisation & counter-terrorism

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Shatif has approved a new counter-terrorism (CT) strategy, Operation 'Azm-e-Istehkam', to combat extremism and terrorism in a decisive manner

July 11, 2024 By Lt. General P.C. Katoch (Retd) Illustration(s): By SP Guide Pubns
The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

 

Since mid-2021, the TEHREEK-E-TALIBAN PAKISTAN (TTP) has claimed merger with 47 Pakistani Taliban factions, sectarian groups, as also Al Qaeda affiliates

Pakistan's Member of Parliament, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, addressing Pakistan's National Assembly on June 26, 2024, stated that there are 40,000-50,000 TTP fighters present in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) region of Pakistan. He was vehement in saying it is possible that within 3-4 months the Government of Islamic Emirate of Pakistan (TTP-TALIBAN) will replace the Pakistani government in KPK. He also said that the government in KPK has issued orders to shut the police stations in the evening.

The TTP, intimately linked to Taliban is constantly attacking Pakistani security forces. Since mid-2021, the TTP has claimed merger with 47 Pakistani Taliban factions, sectarian groups, as also Al Qaeda affiliates. Moreover, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) group that has joined TTP, is also linked to Haqqani Network and Al Qaeda.

TTP videos in May 2024 showed heavily armed TTP fighters patrolling Dera Ghazi Khan (Pakistan's Punjab) by day and night, patrolling in Mirali Tehsil of KPK by night. Dera Ghazi Khan has Pakistan's largest nuclear facility and 200 plus HBG fighters are reportedly located in close vicinity. Commander of the group, Muhammad Naik Waziristani says it has become important for them to acquire nuclear weapons to protect the Muslim Ummah from invasion of their lands by foreign forces.

Pakistan's Member of Parliament, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, stated that there are 40,000-50,000 TTP fighters present in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) region of Pakistan

TTP-HBG has been attacking Pakistani army posts close to the Durand Line and occupied two-three posts. Taliban and Pakistani security forces are having frequent exchange of fire. In March 2024, Pakistan military carried out "intelligence-based" aerial strikes inside Afghanistan. On May 22, 2024, Pakistan military said its operations resulted in killing of dozens of Afghanistan-based terrorists. The announcement came a day after a US research group said that "Afghanistan has become a breeding ground for terrorist activities" since the Taliban regained power in 2021.

As of mid-March 2024, the TTP had killed over 2,000 Pakistanis including 300 in first-half of 2024. Making Afghanistan-AfPak the crucible of terror has been an American design. The Taliban, Haqqani Network, TTP, Al Qaeda, ISIS, HGB group and Pak-based terror groups are all interlinked. The US gave birth to Al Qaeda in conjunction with Pakistan, and in tandem with Turkey-Jordan armed and trained the ISIS, which is presently employed in Afghanistan/South Asia, Central Asia and Middle East.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman's statement that the KPK region would come under TTP-Taliban in 3-4 months is not in sync with ground realities. KPK is already under control of the TTP-HGB. Babar Ali, a senior TTP commander recently said, "Entire country (Pakistan) is now under our control, we are present in every corner of Pakistan."

The TTP, intimately linked to Taliban, is constantly attacking Pakistani security forces and has claimed merger with 47 Pakistani Taliban factions, sectarian groups, as also Al Qaeda affiliates

Pakistan is under tremendous pressure from China because Chinese nationals working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects are being targeted in Pakistan. Many Chinese investment projects are in western Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan, which is especially vulnerable to terrorist attacks. These attacks are a drain on Pakistan's economy; for example, Pakistan paid $2.58 million compensation for five Chinese killed in a suicide attack in Dasu during March 2024.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved a new counter-terrorism (CT) strategy, Operation 'Azm-e-Istehkam', to combat extremism and terrorism in a decisive manner. It includes intensified military operations, legislative reforms, and enhanced regional cooperation. Legislative reforms aim to empower law enforcement agencies to impose exemplary punishments on terrorists. Diplomatic efforts are also planned to limit terrorists' operational space through regional cooperation; these would be hard to achieve, given Pakistan's credentials as a terror-generating country, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and the Durand Line not recognised by Afghans and Pashtuns. Pakistan has sought small arms and modern equipment from the US to ensure the success of Azm-e-Istehkam.

Azm-e-Istehkam may have been defined in consultation with China. China may even assist in these military offensives. But these offensives are unlikely to achieve much considering the 40,000-50,000 TTP fighters in KPK are adept in sub-conventional tactics. Also, the TTP presence has moved beyond KPK, even in Pakistan's Punjab. On June 30, 2024, TTP fighters occupied a toll plaza in Jhang District of Punjab Province and are conducting searches. Concurrently, more than 25 terrorists escaped from a district jail in Poonch (POK).

Pakistan has been saying that India's R&AW is responsible for killings in Pakistan, whereas, the ISI is doing so itself for terrorists/terrorist leaders who have outlived their utility and are a drain on the exchequer. Otherwise, it is inconceivable that "unknown gunmen" can periodically undertake killings that too in mostly broad daylight, and the ISI would allow this. However, giving the credit to India also helps to justify Pakistan's proxy war on India to some extent.

As of mid-March 2024, the TTP had killed over 2,000 Pakistanis including 300 in the first half of 2024

Now Pakistan is accusing R&AW of the TTP-Taliban and Baloch independent fighters cooperating with each other and launching joint attacks against Pakistani security forces, which is obviously a false accusation. Talibanisation of Pakistan anyway is not good for India, especially when the TTP and the HGB group have been trending "Ghazwa-e-Hind" on social media since mid-March 2024.

The CIA is funding two Pakistani SIGINT/COMINT stations on the Pak-Afghan border to monitor Taliban, TTP and Al Qaeda. These stations are to be operated by ISI's Technical Division. But simultaneously, all these terrorist groups (Al Qaeda included) are also being 'energised' by the West in preparation of taking on Russia and China; in the backdrop of Russia winning in Ukraine. It is no secret that the US is interested in destabilising South Asia – same as it has been doing in the Middle East. In fact, the US looks forward to an India-China war to extract strategic and economic advantages like it is doing in Ukraine.

Notably, an online radical platform has now published PDF copies of "How to Make Weapons of Mass Destruction". India needs to closely examine the fallout of the Talibanisation of Pakistan on India, changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and the future plans of global powers with respect to South Asia. India is yet to chalk out a national security strategy but others plan decades ahead. For example, why did Chinese start teaching and learning Tamil language a decade back? Similarly, why is the CIA-linked Al Qaeda posting messages on social media in Bengali language, is it for Bangladesh, West Bengal or both?

Ironically for India, Pakistan's proxy war in J&K is fully backed by China. There is visible spurt in terrorist attacks in J&K including ambushing military vehicles and mutilating bodies of soldiers. This will increase more, once TTP-Taliban gain more control in Pakistan and enter J&K. Four terror attacks already after Lok Sabha elections indicates ground support growing for terrorists. We need to exact costs from the Pakistani military similarly.