On the first day of the recent Manipur Legislative Assembly session (July 31 - August 12), Chief Minister Biren Singh told the house that the ongoing violence in the state since May 3, 2023 had resulted in 226 persons killed, 39 missing, over 59,000 displaced, 11,133 homes burnt, 4,569 destroyed and 11,892 cases of violence filed, without mentioning how many of these cases have been resolved.

The Chief Minister asserted that normalcy is returning, expressed confidence that the improving trend of tax collection will continue during the current year, and said the Centre has approved special assistance of ₹500 crore to make up revenue losses; relief package of ₹101.75 crore for operating relief camps set up for the displaced persons, and another package of ₹209.45 crore for running relief and rehabilitation of violence affected persons. Also, a ₹10 crore Status Corpus Fund has been established for extending ex-gratia to the killed and injured.

The ongoing violence in Manipur since May 3, 2023, has resulted in 226 deaths, 39 missing persons, over 59,000 displaced, 11,133 homes burnt, and 11,892 cases of violence filed.

On August 1, 2024, the conflicting Meitei and Hmar (belonging to the Kuki-Chin-Zo ethnic group) of 'Jiribam District', signed an agreement to end hostilities and re-establish peace. The Hmar tribe migrated from China and settled first in Burma and scattered in and around Manipur, Mizoram and North Cachar Hills in Assam. Although this agreement is restricted to Jiribam District only, government sources described it a big achievement towards plans to restore peace in Manipur.

The above meeting was held at the CRPF group centre at Dayapur near Silchar in Assam's Cachar District. It was also attended by representatives of Paite, Thadou and Mizo tribes of Jiribam District. Jiribam District has remained largely unaffected in the violence that broke out in May 2023 other than two incidents. On June 5, 2024, a 59-year old Meitei farmer went missing. And, in July a CRPF jawan was killed and three security personnel were injured when militants ambushed a joint patrol party with the state police.

This is only a baby step towards peace as Manipur has a very long way to go yet. Because of the prevailing situation, all the 10 Kuki-Zo MLA's did not attend the recent assembly session, nor had they attended the previous two assembly sessions since the outbreak of violence in May 2023. The Assam Rifles (AR) is manning the buffer zone between Imphal Valley and the Hills area. The Imphal Valley is not safe for the Kuki-Zo, where even the Naga have been attacked.

The Assam Rifles (AR) is manning the buffer zone between Imphal Valley and the Hills area, yet has faced accusations of siding with the Kuki-Zo amidst anti-Army/AR videos circulating online.

A host of anti-Army/AR videos have been in circulation accusing them of siding with the Kuki-Zo, as also fake videos of US marines training and arming Kuki-Zo, although these videos are of Myanmar where US marines are helping anti-government forces to fight the military junta. This was also confirmed in a statement by the DG of Assam Rifles on July 27, 2024, who also reiterated that the AR is operating in a totally impartial manner.

Ironically, the state government is complicit in ethnic cleansing of tribals. On June 24, 2023, Manipur MLA Thounaojam Shyamkumar Singh, heading a 1,200-1,500 mob (mostly women) forced an Army column to release 12 armed KYKL terrorists, including self-styled Lt Col Moirangthem - mastermind of the KYKL ambush on an army convoy on June 4, 2015, killing 18 soldiers. Also, thousands of arms and ammunition "purportedly" looted from police and IRB armories in Manipur were "distributed" to Meitei radical groups according to ground sources.

According to the Director Strategic Studies, Takshashila Institution, Manipur's political leadership is utilising police commandos on behalf of the Meitei to inflict revenge.

'Arambai Tenggol' (radical armed Meitei group), having cadres strength of 7,000 cadres till March 2023, expand to 50,000 by January 2024 spread across 59 units, This wasn't possible without state-support, plus looking at the welcome accorded to Arambai Tenggol leader and cadres sporting arms and taking control of Imphal. with security forces nowhere in sight. Moreover, Arambai Tenggol was allowed to 'summon' MLAs at Kangla Fort; compelling them to sign a draft proposal and take an oath to "protect the integrity of the state". Also, United National Liberation Front (UNLF) cadres (who the government said signed a peace deal and laid down their arms), are allowed to carry arms and establish posts in Manipur.

Manipur's political leadership is accused of using police commandos and radical groups like Arambai Tenggol to inflict violence against certain ethnic communities, allegedly with state support.

According to Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the violence in Manipur is because of refugee influx from Myanmar, which actually is in Mizoram with Chins inhabiting both sides of the international border. The Kuki-Zo have been living in Manipur for past several decades. The European Manipuri Association (EMA) recently submitted a memorandum to India's High Commissioner to Britain, which included documents "on the history of Kuki refugees of the 1960s" and suggesting measures to end the strife in Manipur.

More recently, the NSCN (IM) has issued a warning to the Arambai Tenggol not to attack Christians and treat them like dirt. Naga leaders in Manipur had said earlier they know Nagas will be the targets after the Kuki-Zo.

A report by the Editors Guild of India (EGI) released on September 2, 2023, after the visit of their delegation to Manipur in August 2023, had said that Manipur has an annual turnover of ₹50,000 crore by way of narcotics trade compared to the annual state budget of about ₹30,000 crore.

Removal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from the Imphal Valley before May 2023 contributed to the lawlessness and violence in the area, giving freehand to the Arambai Tenggol and other radical Meitei groups. Now the security grid is undergoing more change with the Centre having decided to pull out some AR troops from Manipur (replacing them with CRPF) for deployment in Jammu region of J&K, where the AR is to have a base according to newspaper reports.

Manipur's violence-hit Churachandpur district witnessed massive public protests on July 31 with the Kuki-Zo protesting in large numbers at Gothol, Khousabung and Kangvai areas against the Centre's decision to pull out the Assam Rifles. They also held candle light vigils and held placards inscribed 'AR protect and save our lives', 'AR don't go back', 'Meitei militants are the problem, not AR' and the like.

However, the Centre has moved out two AR battalions from Manipur to J&K. It is a perversity of fate that terrorism increased south of the Pir Panjal Range in J&K after the 'Uniform Force' of the Rashtriya Rifles was moved to Eastern Ladakh, diluting the counter-insurgency grid, and now two AR battalions have been moved out from Manipur, which may exacerbate the situation in this border state. Already, radical Meitei leaders spewing hate are reportedly exhorting fellow Meiteis, armed with prohibited assault weapons and having looted vehicles, to kill non-Meiteis in the hills using looted vehicles.

Finally, restoring peace in Manipur is not going to be easy considering what has happened over the past 15 months. It will largely depend on the sincerity of the Centre and the State in doing so, which should be sans political skullduggery.