India signalled the growing maturity of its nuclear weapons and increasing confidence with a credible minimum deterrence posture by test-firing the Agni-5 surface-to-surface Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICMB) on the night of October 27.

This is the first user launch of the 5,000-km range Agni-5 by the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), an indication that India’s most potent nuclear missile is now fully inducted and operational, with firing drills in place. It’s been test-fired seven times earlier but this was the first done at night.

While the official statement emphasised that “the successful test of Agni-5 is in line with India’s stated policy to have ‘credible minimum deterrence’ that underpins the commitment to ‘No First Use’”, it is being seen as a signal of capability and intent to China.

This is India’s first launch of its sole ICBM after being forced into a bitter 17-month-long military stand-off by China along the disputed boundary in Eastern Ladakh. The Agni-5 brings all of India’s adversaries fully within its strike envelope

This is India’s first launch of its sole ICBM after being forced into a bitter 17-month-long military stand-off by China along the disputed boundary in Eastern Ladakh. The Agni-5 brings all of India’s adversaries fully within its strike envelope.

China is far ahead in nuclear weaponry, with a strike range of its ICBMs going to up to 15,000 km with its Dong Feng series of ballistic missiles. The well-regarded Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) pegs the number of nuclear warheads in the Chinese arsenal at 350. India’s number, as per SIPRI, is 156.

The cannisterised ICBM, fired from the APJ Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha at 1950 hours on the night of October 27, was “tested for its entire range” with a “high degree of accuracy”.

With growing technological capability, India is also reconfiguring its missile mix. On June 28 this year, India unveiled the new 1,500-km range Agni Prime through a test firing to give it greater flexibility in strike options. This will replace the 700-km range Agni-1

The three-stage solid fuelled Agni-5 was fired reportedly in its full operational configuration. It is built to carry a 1.5-ton warhead at 24 times the speed of sound.

With growing technological capability, India is also reconfiguring its missile mix. On June 28 this year, India unveiled the new 1,500-km range Agni Prime through a test firing to give it greater flexibility in strike options. This will replace the 700-km range Agni-1. India’s SFC – the custodian of its strategic arsenal – is equipped with the Prithvi-2 (350 KM), the Agni-2 (2,000 km) and the Agni-3 (3,000 km) surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is widely reported to have modified some its frontline fighter aircraft for delivery of tactical nuclear weapons from the air and honed toss bombing techniques.

Work on the 3,500-km range K-4 SLBM to give the undersea leg more heft and credibility is likely to take at least another two years. And three more strategic submarines are in the works, of which the Arihant follow-on Arighat is slated for induction in 2022

But it’s the third and most vital leg of India’s nuclear triad which needs to cover most distance towards maturity. The undersea leg of the triad is based on a solitary SSBN, the Arihant, which is termed in strategic circles as a ‘Baby Boomer’, an indication that the capability is still minimalist. It is yet armed with only the K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which has a modestrange of 750 km. Work on the 3,500-km range K-4 SLBM to give the undersea leg more heft and credibilityis likely to take at least another two years. And three more strategic submarines are in the works, of which the Arihant follow-on Arighatis slated for induction in 2022.

On the capability front, the Defence Research and Development (DRDO) is also working on the MIRV or Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle technology, which allows multiple nuclear warheads to be mounted on a missile for striking different targets. According to information in the public domain, it will take at least another two years for the DRDO to make headway with this technology.