One step forward and two steps backward has become a norm in India Pakistan relations. The flurry of telephonic conversations on 15th and 16th July between the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the Pakistani High Commissioner Abdul Basit and the Indian Foreign Secretary S . Jayshankar in New Delhi and Indian High Commissioner TCA Raghavan and the Pakistani Foreign Secretary Aizaz Choudhry of Pakistan in Islamabad led to acrimonious exchange publicly and the Indian Foreign Secretary had to come out to issue a strong warning to Pakistan that India will not let its guard down and take all measures to secure its sovereignty. This has cast serious doubts on the possibility of holding the first ever dialogue between the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the Foreign and Security Affairs advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Sartaz Aziz.

Whenever a serious move is made from the leadership of both the countries to initiate a serious dialogue for resolving all outstanding issues and normalization of relations , the army in Pakistan puts a break and try to vitiate the atmosphere. After an year long pause, the Prime Ministers of two countries met in Ufa (Russia) and decided to take another step towards normalization of relations, but the Jehadi elements in Pakistani army did not allow that. When the Ufa joint statement was issued on 10th July , peaceniks in both sides heaved a sigh of relief , though there were critics in Indian opposition camps also, deriding the agreement as of no consequence. In Pakistan, though the Army Headquarters maintained a stoic silence on the joint statement, only four days later their views were publicized through the ceasefire violation in Jammu and Kashmir and later accusing India of breaking the spirit of Ufa declaration and the 2003 ceasefire agreement reached between the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the then President General Pervez Musharraf. This agreement stood the test of time till a General turned civilian President had to relinquish office (in 2008) due to his follies and ambitions and later when another pure General Qayani stepped in the shoes of Army Chief replacing General Musharraf , he reversed Musharraf's Kashmir policy and India had to face the brunt of terrorist attacks from 26th Nov to 28th November, 2008 unprecedented in the history of terrorism, though it was General Musharraf who was the architect of Kargil invasion in May, 1999, which happened in the immediate aftermath of the visit of Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Lahore in February, 1999 and the Pakistani premier was the same Nawaz Sharif, who had angered General Musharraf so much that he repeated the Pakistan's history of dethroning the elected Prime Minister of the country.

But this time , people expected the Ufa Joint Statement to survive till it produced results , because among the Pakistani interlocutors in Ufa was the foreign and strategic issues advisor to Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Sartaz Aziz, considered as the close confidante of the Army Chief General Raheel Sharif. The Joint statement drew lot of adverse comments from the retired officers of the Pakistani Army on the issues of dropping the K word from the Joint Statement. The statement focused mainly on how to reduce tensions on the International border and Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir for which the two Prime Ministers had issued instructions to their Director Generals of Border Security Force and the Pakistani Rangers and later the Director Generals of Military Operations of both the countries. Reduction of tensions along the International Border and LoC would have led to the conducive atmosphere to resolve all outstanding issues, which goes without saying is the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. But the Pakistani side failed to realize the significance of the tone and tenor of the Joint Statement and launched a whole hog attack on the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for allegedly surrendering before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Though the security situation along the IB and LoC was not very normal before and during the Ufa talks, a calculated escalation was noticed by the Indian authorities. First the Pakistani side launched unprovoked firing on the IB and LoC and then a ridiculous allegation was leveled by the Pakistani foreign office that an Indian spy drone violated the Pakistani air space (denied by Indian Foreign Secretary) and was shot down by the Pakistani army in the area of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Indian authorities clearly understood the design and intention behind these allegations, hence Indian Foreign secretary had to go public on 16th July and warn the Pakistan government that this was not conducive to initiating high level talks between India and Pakistan for which the Pakistani Foreign and Security issues advisor has to visit India, for which dates have not been declared. Hence there are speculation in strategic circles on the feared cancellation of the NSA level talks. In fact before the NSA level talks the DGs of BSF and Pakistani rangers and DGs of the DGMO of the two armies were instructed to meet and report to the forthcoming NSA meeting in New Delhi, possible measures to de-escalate tension on the IB and LoC. But in the current vitiated atmosphere it seems the two countries will wait for the situation to calm down and then initiate DG level talks between them and later fix the dates for the visit of Sartaj Aziz to New Delhi.

However, much before the decision to fix the dates of meeting of the two DGs were to be taken, Pakistan has vitiated the atmosphere for talks and put the question mark over the initial round of meetings between the DGs of BSF and Pakistani Rangers and the two DGs of the Director General Military operations. This was supposed to pave the way for the first ever talks between the NSAs of the two countries. Earlier such exploratory talks were scheduled between the two foreign secretaries. The NSA level talks would also have been accompanied by back channel talks between the special envoys of the two countries.

However, the Pakistani army did not wait for talks to produce some results and instructed its soldiers on the LoC and the IB to launch unprovoked firing on the Indian army posts and villages which killed and injured innocent civilians. India retorted heavily, leading to high level exchange of diplomatic demarche between the two sides. When the Pakistani side did not listen to Indian warnings, a political decision was taken at the North Block, where a meeting was convened by the Home Minister Rajnath Singh , which included the EAM Sushma Swaraj , The Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The meeting instructed the Foreign Secretary Jayshankar to reveal the real designs of the Pakistani army , who was bent upon destroying peace and tranquility on the LoC and the IB.

Inspite of acrimonious diplomatic exchange between the two sides, both sides have not yet talked of cancellation of NSA level talks. The Pakistani Foreign ministry Spokesperson said, "in the spirit of maintaining peace and tranquility at the LoC and IB, and the region at large, it was important that the 2003 Understanding on maintaining ceasefire is observed."

The Indian foreign secretary said, "I think my statement made it very clear that if the intention or the inclination is to strengthen peace and tranquility on the border and do the meetings that we have agreed to do, we remain committed to that. If on the other hand there is unprovoked firing and there is infiltration and cross-border terrorism, then obviously the situation is different. So, that choice is not ours." Thus India has indicated that the future talks can happen only if Pakistan observes restraint on the border.